A by-election in the eastern Adelaide seat of Dunstan will be held on March 23 to replace former South Australian premier Steven Marshall. The by-election coincides with the half-way point of the Malinauskas Government’s term and is being posited by pundits as a confidence vote in their capacity to deliver on promises to tackle the cost of living and improve health and education (image: Electoral Commission South Australia and Government of South Australia, licenced under CC BY 3.0 AU)
By Robert Hicks | @_roberthicks
If you live in any of the suburbs above, congratulations (or condolences): you’re going to the polls this Saturday.
Polling booths are provided below:
| Suburb | Location | Address |
| JOSLIN | College Park Scout Hall | 95 Fourth Ave, Joslin |
| KENSINGTON | Marryatville Primary School | Dankel Ave, Kensington |
| KENSINGTON PARK | Kensington Park RSL | 346 The Parade, Kensington Park |
| KENT TOWN | Wesley Uniting Church Hall | 27 Grenfell St, Kent Town (Cnr Fullarton Rd and Grenfell St) |
| MARDEN | Marden Education Centre | 1-37 Marden Rd, Marden |
| MAYLANDS | Field of Dreams Centre Hall | 17A Augusta St, Maylands (parking on Dover St) |
| NORWOOD | Don Pyatt Hall, Norwood Town Hall | 175 The Parade, Norwood (enter off George St) |
| NORWOOD WEST | Norwood Primary School | 37 Osmond Tce, Norwood |
| ST MORRIS | Adelaide Korean Uniting Church Hall | 40 Third Ave, St Morris (enter off Gardiner Ave) |
| ST PETERS | Coles Hall | 34A Third Ave, St Peters |
| ST PETERS EAST | East Adelaide School | 57-59 Second Ave, St Peters (enter off Third Ave) |
| TRINITY GARDENS | Trinity Gardens School | 160 Portrush Rd, Trinity Gardens |
All locations are accessible via assisted wheelchair access, and the booth at St Peters East is fully accessible via wheelchair. Early voting is available at 2/260 Magill Rd, Beulah Park, until March 22 at 6pm.
Haven’t heard about this by-election?
As reported by OTR in March, the ban of election advertising on public infrastructure will apply to the Dunstan by-election.
If you haven’t heard of the by-election until now, this may be why.
While the corflute ban may influence turnout, which is historically lower at by-elections than at normal elections, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor Clement Macintyre said this will force political parties to be more active in communities to remind residents they are voting.
“It basically means the parties have just got to work a bit harder with door knocking and leafleting to make sure that that voters are aware of it,” Macintyre said.
Polling booths will be open until 6pm on voting day. Fill out all the boxes on the ballot. Voting is compulsory.
A little bit about Dunstan
Dunstan is named after Labor premier Don Dunstan, who represented the old, overlapping seat of Norwood between 1953 and 1979. Since the 2010 state election, the electorate has been in the hands of the Liberal Party.
Dunstan is a stone’s throw away from the Adelaide CBD and encompasses several affluent inner-eastern suburbs. According to the 2021 Census, the median weekly family wage of $2,416 is 27 per cent higher than the state median of $1,889, and the median personal income is $918, a 25 per cent increase from the state median of $734.
But living in an affluent suburb does not mean you are immune to cost-of-living pressures — something each party is aware of and pushing hard in their messaging.
The Liberal Party is driving forward with messages of improving opportunities in the state to diversify the economy, whereas the governing Labor Party is backing their current performance by citing CommSec, who declared that “South Australia is best performing economy for first time”.
The Greens, meanwhile, have successfully requested the state government begin an inquiry into supermarket price gouging.
According to the SA Housing Authority’s Private Rent Report 2023, the median weekly rent for a two bedroom house in Norwood is $550, compared to $430 in metro areas and $420 for the rest of the state.
The latest census data also shows the median monthly mortgage repayments in Dunstan are $2,392. This is a 75 per cent increase from the state median of $1,365.
Education is also particularly relevant in Dunstan, whether you are currently studying or already possess a qualification.
Like other inner-city suburbs near the CBD, Dunstan’s proximity to local universities attracts tertiary students who make up nearly 11 per cent of the seat.
Dunstan is also a highly educated area as 44 per cent of the population holds a bachelor’s degree or higher qualification — near double that of the 22.7 per cent state average.
Additionally, physical and mental healthcare is important to everyone, not just residents of Dunstan; but, as bulk-billing GPs go the way of the dinosaurs and the ramping crisis worsens, health policies are at the forefront of each of these campaigns.
How will this affect the vote?
According to 2022 Australian Election Study, possessing a tertiary education, and studying at a tertiary institution are indicators of voting left-wing, i.e., Labor, Greens, or other left-wing minor parties or independents.
Education and vote choice at the 2022 Federal Election (source: 2022 Australian Election Study)
Housing is an Australia-wide issue, and tenure affects voting behaviours; renters lean left-wing whereas homeowners are distributed equally between left and right.
Vote choice by tenure at the 2022 Federal Election (source: 2022 Australian Election Study)
Thirty-six per cent of Dunstan residents live in rentals, higher than the state average of 27.6 per cent, whereas 59.4 per cent own their houses outright or with a mortgage, lower than the state average of 68.4 per cent.
At the previous state election, 46.7 per cent of Dunstan voted Liberal, 35 per cent voted Labor, 13.7 per cent voted Green, and 4.4 percent voted for Family First.
Primary vote in Dunstan at the 2022 South Australian election and primary vote in the overlapping federal seat of Sturt in 2022 Federal election (source: Electoral Commission of South Australia and Australian Electoral Commission)
The western reaches of the federal seat of Sturt correspond with Dunstan’s boundaries; in the 2022 federal election 20 per cent of votes in Sturt at overlapping polling booths were for the Greens. Professor Clement Macintyre said this is likely why the Greens are putting a lot of resources into the campaign.
“The Greens have been much more upbeat about their chances,” Macintyre said.
“What they need is a collapse in one of the major parties, and they’ve got to get into second position and that will be their challenge.
“But [federal results] aren’t comparable with state results.”
Neither major party is likely to reach above 50 per cent of the vote, so preferences will make the difference in Dunstan.
On their how-to-vote cards the Greens and the Animal Justice Party are urging voters to place Labor ahead of the Liberals. The Australian Family Party is urging voters to place the Liberals ahead of Labor on theirs.
While it’s unlikely the smaller party will ascend into second place, Labor have indicated to put the Greens above the Liberals. The Liberals, however, have indicated Labor above the Greens.
But your vote is yours. Any order will be counted if you fill out every box.
Your candidates
The three main candidates running in Dunstan for this by-election are all professional women. Two more minor parties, the Animal Justice Party and Australian Family Party, are also running.
Dr Anna Finizio is the Liberal candidate. She has previously run for the western suburbs seat of Hindmarsh in the 2022 federal election.
A corflute with Dr Anna Finizio pictured (source: Charlotte Chalklen)
“I have a lot of empathy for young people trying to enter the housing market. I have experienced the pressures of cost of living and housing affordability personally. We know we have the tightest rental market in the country and house prices continue to skyrocket,” Finizio said.
“A good start to addressing this is increasing the supply of available land for housing in appropriate areas, simplifying the rental application process, and optimising regulation to enable the building industry to build the homes we need more quickly.”
Finizio recalls conversations with worried residents concerned about family members unable to access healthcare, highlighted by an ongoing ramping crisis in South Australia.
“I understand the issues facing our health system are complex and require a system-wide approach. We need to significantly increase our investment in mental health, provide greater incentives to attract and retain doctors and nurses, invest in preventative health and provide better community-based care,” she said.
Finizio said she relates to what students are feeling now: a constant anxious look towards their future career. A future that might take them out of state for opportunities.
“I’d seen many of my friends and classmates move interstate or overseas once they’d graduated,” she said.
“This is something that I, and the Liberal Party, are passionate about fixing. We want to encourage entrepreneurialism and innovation in South Australia to foster an ecosystem where the energy, talent and passion of young South Australians can be harnessed, right here at home.”
Cressida O’Hanlon is the Labor candidate. She has previously run for election in Dunstan in 2022, and for the federal electorate of Sturt in 2019.
Cressida O’Hanlon pictured (source: image supplied)
“There’s no doubt that cost-of-living is a challenge around Australia, and the world at the moment, particularly in the context of the interest rate increases the Reserve Bank has delivered in recent years,” O’Hanlon said.
“The other big challenge, particularly for young people, is the cost of housing.
“The Government has abolished stamp duty for eligible first home buyers who build a new home. The Government has also delivered the biggest land release in state history, and after decades of cuts, is delivering the first significant increase to public housing in a generation.”
Long term investment is a major focus of hers. She said she wants to make sure future generations exceed the living standards that her generation enjoyed.
“And to do so, we must capitalise on opportunities,” O’Hanlon said.
“I think you’ve seen this Government have a clear plan to do that, whether it be building the most complex machines in history down at Osborne or helping the rest of the world decarbonise by producing hydrogen and critical minerals through the State Prosperity Project.
“All of this is going to depend on our young people having a pathway into these jobs. And that’s why the Government is delivering major reforms to our education system – from 3-year-old preschool to technical colleges to the university sector.”
Katie McCusker is the Greens candidate. She previously ran for the old state seat of Norwood in 2010, and the federal seat of Sturt in 2022.
Katie McCusker pictured (source: Australian Greens, licensed under CC BY 2.5 AU)
The Greens, both at a federal and state level, have introduced a suite of policies aimed towards renters’ rights.
“Here in SA, we were able to negotiate with the Government on getting many reforms to the Residential Tenancies Act thanks to our Greens in the Upper House,” McCusker said.
“I want to fight for better housing for renters and better schemes for first home buyers. My policies will be focused on getting a public builder back into SA, rather than allowing private developers to construct all our homes and pocket the huge profits.
“This way, public funding can be used to subsidise housing for young people trying to get into the housing market.”
McCusker said improving access to education and healthcare for young people is a priority for her and her party.
“The Greens want to scrap university and TAFE fees, bring back ETSA to provide a publicly controlled electricity supplier, and get dental and mental healthcare into Medicare,” she said.
“With more Greens MPs elected, young people will start to see positive changes that will allow them to plan for their futures without feeling overwhelmed by debt and skyrocketing costs for housing and essentials.”
The burning question: who will win?
If you are looking for a winner before the by-election, you are out of luck. Professor Macintyre says it is a difficult one to call.
“The natural experience in by-elections is that they tend to go away from the government. The traditional explanation there is that people can vote in a by-election and send a message to the government,” Macintyre said.
“… will the people of Dunstan be a bit peeved that they’re having to vote again when they had a member sitting in the Parliament who is going as a result of his own choice rather than death, as is the case in the federal by-election in Dunkley?
“Dunstan is genuinely marginal in the sense that Labor’s held it for years, the Liberals have taken it a few times, but it’s been a Labor seat more often and for longer than it has a Liberal seat.”
The Liberals held Dunstan by a knife’s edge at the last election — only 260 votes separated Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon from victory.
When talking electoral politics, you talk swings and margins. The margin here is 0.5 per cent and every vote counts.
ontherecordunisa.com 